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warning: non-mainstream opinion

Global warming:
Don't panic!

There is no reason to panic because of the climate change. Why not?

Our actual temperature is below the optimal one

What would be the optimal temperature for mankind? The answer to this question is unknown, and nobody studies this, but it is quite obvious that the average temperature which is optimal for mankind is higher than the actual one. So we should be much more afraid of a global cooling. To clarify which temperature is in the long run optimal is something we would have to find out before even starting to worry about a warming. The answer would subdivide the problems into the question when it would be necessary to start emergency measures to stop the warming, and the question what is necessary to adapt to a higher temperature.

The costs of adaptation to the new climate will remain moderate

Once we know that some amount of warming will improve the living conditions in the long run, there will be nonetheless costs related with the necessary adaptation to the new conditions. But these will be, in fact, investments worth to be done. Instead, investing the same amount into stopping the warming would leave us, in the long run, in worse conditions.

We have an emergency stopgap

Last but not least, we can stop the warming if it will become really necessary. There is an emergency stopgap for climate change: We can reach the same global cooling which we observe in big volcano eruptions with the help of nuclear fusion bomb explosions in inhabitable deserts. Dirty and radical? Indeed, but so what? This would be only an emergency measure, if global warming becomes really horrible.

What really happens

Greening

During the last decades, the Earth became much greener. So, up to now the overall result is an improvement. According to the research results, the main factors which contributed to the greening were more CO2 improving plant growth (70%) and warming (8%). In China, 42% of its part was attributed to programs to conserve and expand forests.

Various particular problems

In discussions I had with alarmists, a lot of different questions have been considered. For some of them, I have written down some basic and sufficiently important points:

Migration

Alarmists claim there will be hundreds of millions climate refugees. But there is no base for panicking. Even if the rural population would have to leave the villages because of climate change, this would be simply part of the ongoing urbanization process, and the typical migration will be from villages to towns of the same country.

Crossing thresholds

Alarmists like to present climate change as happening in unpredictable ways: Temperature raises, but for a long time nothing noticable happens. But then at unpredictable time a sudden change happens, and everything becomes much worse. But then it is too late ...

Except, as we find by looking at the method used to predict such "unpredictable" sudden changes - space-for-time substition - they are easily predictable even by laymen based on common sense.

Rising sea level

The rise of the sea level because of melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica is, first of all, even in the worst case (when all glaciers in Greenland as well as in Antarctica melt completely) not that horrible if one looks only at the land area. In fact, the gains of usable land in Greenland and Antarctica compensate for this loss of land completely. Moreover, such a complete melting of the whole ice sheet of Antarctica this needs a lot of time - several thousand years. During the next hundred years even the worst case scenarios predict only 3-4 m sea level rise in a hundred years. The actual rise is around 3 mm per year.

So there is enough time to do something to minimize the loss of land. One could, for example, protect Bangladesh from the sea level rise building a large dike. This would be affordable even for Bangladesh, and give it even more territory.

Methane

Methane is a quite potent greenhouse gas. Fortunately, the lifetime of methane in the atmosphere is relatively short, ~9 to 10 years at present. So, even if large amounts of methane are released into the atmosphere if the permafrost melts, this gives only a short time effect: It increases the speed of the climate change, but not the final temperature. Only permanent sources of methane would lead to permanent effects. So, while climate scientists have to care about this, there is no base for panicking about methane.

Salinated soils

River deltas may become salinated once the sea level rises. But infrastructure like dikes can solve these problems. Otherwise, salination is a problem of arid regions. If some regions become more arid (which is possible even if precipitation increases in the average) then these problems may appear there too.

But in the average, precipitation is rising, and this almost automatically descreases salination problems: Rain does not contain salt, but solves and washes out some of the salt from the ground.